Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  12.8  12.9  16.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  31.0  53.0  59.0  56.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  56.5 105.0  95.1  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -54.0 -31.0  20.0 -16.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0 -10.0  -2.0 -12.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        1.9%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        9.6%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        5.2%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        5.1%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        5.1%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        4.9%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 WP082023 230827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.60    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.