Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082023 230827 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.70 144.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.6 18.4 17.3 30.9 36.5 51.0 76.2 103.3 F F F U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 47.0 19.0 46.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U N U N U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 90.1 79.4 66.2 20.0 12.6 -3.7 N N N N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -50.0 2.0 -14.0 -6.0 -23.0 -45.0 101.0 89.0 VU U U U VU VU F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 46.0 34.0 28.0 37.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -3.0 6.0 -10.0 -24.0 -73.0 -8.0 F N N N F VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.3% 11.5% 16.4% 25kt / 24h 14.5% 18.2% 16.4% 30kt / 24h 14.5% 12.1% 13.3% 35kt / 24h 14.5% 12.1% 13.3% 40kt / 24h 6.8% 12.1% 9.5% 45kt / 36h 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.46 WP082023 230827 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.70 144.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.6 18.4 17.3 30.9 36.5 51.0 76.2 103.3 U N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 46.0 34.0 28.0 37.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -3.0 6.0 -10.0 -24.0 -73.0 -8.0 U N N N U VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%