Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082023 230827 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.30 144.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 20.3 30.5 33.6 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 F N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 10.0 39.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 90.7 84.4 66.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 N N N U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 -14.0 -6.0 -24.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 U U U VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 53.0 50.0 49.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 1.0 -4.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 F F N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.3% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.84 WP082023 230827 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.30 144.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 20.3 30.5 33.6 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 53.0 50.0 49.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 1.0 -4.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 U U N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%