Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  31.9  34.0  34.5  57.3  83.3  88.1  79.9  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  37.0  22.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.3  80.5  66.0  44.2  13.4  -1.9 -13.2 -16.3  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -10.0 -42.0  -3.0 -20.0 117.0 106.0 150.0  U  U VU  U VU  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  45.0  44.0  51.0  53.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0  -7.0   1.0 -23.0 -72.0-172.0 -39.0 -70.0 VF  F  N VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.3%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.12

 WP082023 230828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.