Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90    145.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  38.9  36.8  49.9  49.9  49.9  49.9  49.9  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.2  70.0  47.7  34.2  34.2  34.2  34.2  34.2  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -40.0  -3.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0  U VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   4.0 -28.0 -87.0 -87.0 -87.0 -87.0 -87.0  N  N VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.34

 WP082023 230828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90    145.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.