Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082023 230828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.50    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  32.8  40.8  54.6  75.1  75.1  75.1  75.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  52.7  40.0  29.0  24.6  24.6  24.6  24.6  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -9.0  -6.0 -11.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  46.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -34.0 -66.0 -57.0 -90.0 -90.0 -90.0 -90.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.20

 WP082023 230828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.50    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.