Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082023 230828 18UTC Storm Located at : 41.00 149.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.1 36.6 52.7 67.9 97.8 105.6 76.3 66.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.4 51.7 36.9 32.1 15.0 5.5 3.0 2.9 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -18.0 -20.0 33.0 92.0 114.0 85.0 66.0 U U VU N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 47.0 42.0 42.0 56.0 62.0 47.0 49.0 U VU VU VU U N VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -52.0 -79.0 -90.0 -79.0 -49.0 -64.0 -32.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.84 WP082023 230828 18UTC Storm Located at : 41.00 149.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.