Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  20.9  18.5  21.0  20.9  24.1  19.9  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  90.0  87.0  84.0  85.0  95.0 106.0  82.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  21.0  10.0   6.0   5.0   8.0  31.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  70.0  68.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.9%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       32.0%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       15.5%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       13.1%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       13.1%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h       12.0%       46.8%       29.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.6%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h       28.6%       24.6%       26.6%
 70kt / 48h       23.4%       21.3%       22.4%
 65kt / 72h       55.4%       50.1%       52.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 WP092023 230823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  20.9  18.5  21.0  20.9  24.1  19.9  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  70.0  68.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%