Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  24.6  22.0  23.2  28.7  31.5  36.2  42.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  92.0  79.0  80.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   5.0 -16.0 -33.0  25.0  24.0  48.0  17.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%        8.1%        9.2%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       35.2%       26.2%
 30kt / 24h       14.9%       20.1%       17.5%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%       20.1%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       20.1%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h       15.1%       29.9%       22.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.6%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       13.8%       13.3%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        6.8%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h       15.6%       10.4%       13.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 WP092023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  24.6  22.0  23.2  28.7  31.5  36.2  42.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%