Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  17.6  14.6  24.1  22.4  22.9  21.1  14.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  87.0  97.0 108.0 109.0  92.0  89.0  82.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  26.0 -43.0  -1.0  32.0  28.0  32.0  29.0  U  U VU  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%        7.3%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h       18.6%       38.6%       28.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.8%       23.6%       19.2%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       22.5%       16.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       22.5%       12.7%
 45kt / 36h       22.6%       36.5%       29.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.7%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       33.5%       24.7%       29.1%
 70kt / 48h       22.7%       12.6%       17.6%
 65kt / 72h       52.6%       33.9%       43.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.04

 WP092023 230824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  17.6  14.6  24.1  22.4  22.9  21.1  14.9  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%