Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  22.3  25.0  26.0  20.5  16.2  16.0  17.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  96.0 105.0 113.0  97.0  70.0  57.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  29.0  26.0  43.0  39.0  55.0  35.0  53.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.1%       22.6%       22.4%
 25kt / 24h       48.3%       61.3%       54.8%
 30kt / 24h       37.2%       49.8%       43.5%
 35kt / 24h       29.1%       49.8%       39.5%
 40kt / 24h       15.7%       48.5%       32.1%
 45kt / 36h       39.7%       55.9%       47.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.0%       17.5%
 55kt / 48h       43.6%       42.9%       43.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       23.9%       24.4%
 65kt / 72h       49.4%       40.8%       45.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.00

 WP092023 230825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  22.3  25.0  26.0  20.5  16.2  16.0  17.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%