Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  20.6  17.1  17.1  15.3  19.5  18.5  23.3  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 109.0 113.0 106.0  88.0  80.0  92.0 100.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  11.0  23.0 -17.0  -2.0  26.0  -7.0 -60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       73.7%       39.6%       56.7%
 25kt / 24h       78.9%       72.9%       75.9%
 30kt / 24h       78.9%       70.3%       74.6%
 35kt / 24h       74.2%       70.3%       72.3%
 40kt / 24h       73.2%       70.3%       71.7%
 45kt / 36h       62.7%       55.0%       58.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.5%       18.3%
 55kt / 48h       41.4%       40.7%       41.0%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%       16.9%       20.3%
 65kt / 72h       25.4%       21.2%       23.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 WP092023 230825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  20.6  17.1  17.1  15.3  19.5  18.5  23.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%