Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  18.9  18.9  20.4  14.6  18.4  19.7  18.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0 114.0 110.0 103.0  87.0  82.0 102.0  99.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  20.0   0.0 -10.0  23.0   7.0  44.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.8%       25.1%       43.5%
 25kt / 24h       50.2%       47.8%       49.0%
 30kt / 24h       50.2%       41.4%       45.8%
 35kt / 24h       43.7%       41.4%       42.5%
 40kt / 24h       39.4%       39.6%       39.5%
 45kt / 36h       76.8%       39.5%       58.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.1%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       31.9%       13.8%       22.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 WP092023 230825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  18.9  18.9  20.4  14.6  18.4  19.7  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%