Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.7  16.7  15.0  16.8  15.4  16.6  13.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  94.0  89.0  84.0  83.0  98.0  98.0  88.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   0.0  29.0  36.0  24.0  26.0  -8.0 -10.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  71.0  74.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.2%       21.9%       31.1%
 25kt / 24h       41.9%       41.8%       41.9%
 30kt / 24h       36.5%       37.2%       36.9%
 35kt / 24h       33.1%       37.2%       35.1%
 40kt / 24h       15.9%       34.0%       25.0%
 45kt / 36h       81.0%       34.6%       57.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP092023 230826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.7  16.7  15.0  16.8  15.4  16.6  13.3  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  71.0  74.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%