Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    123.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  17.1  14.2  19.0  17.0  18.9  16.0  12.1  N  F  F  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  84.0  80.0  75.0  83.0 100.0  90.0  84.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   6.0  32.0  42.0  31.0  34.0  -9.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.3%       14.7%       24.0%
 25kt / 24h       26.4%       26.1%       26.3%
 30kt / 24h       25.0%       19.8%       22.4%
 35kt / 24h       19.5%       19.8%       19.6%
 40kt / 24h       14.3%       18.8%       16.5%
 45kt / 36h       78.0%       19.2%       48.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 WP092023 230826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    123.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  17.1  14.2  19.0  17.0  18.9  16.0  12.1  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%