Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  14.5  20.7  19.3  14.9  13.7  10.9   7.7  F  F  N  N  F  F  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  81.0  82.0  80.0  99.0  94.0  85.0  94.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  16.0 -12.0   3.0  41.0  23.0  71.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.2%       14.0%       21.1%
 25kt / 24h       18.5%       18.5%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       13.8%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h       15.3%       13.6%       14.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP092023 230826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  14.5  20.7  19.3  14.9  13.7  10.9   7.7  N  U  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  71.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%