Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  22.6  21.9  19.4  22.0  18.0  13.1  14.5  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  81.0  97.0  84.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  31.0  33.0  34.0  -4.0  21.0  30.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   5.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        3.6%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%        6.7%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        4.1%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        3.6%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        3.6%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP092023 230827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  22.6  21.9  19.4  22.0  18.0  13.1  14.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   5.0   3.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%