Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  20.0  21.9  21.4  14.4  15.8  13.5  16.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  56.0  78.0 100.0  93.0  87.0  83.0  63.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  38.0  40.0  -1.0  25.0  18.0  10.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.8%        3.2%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%        5.5%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%        2.9%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 WP092023 230827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  20.0  21.9  21.4  14.4  15.8  13.5  16.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.7%        1.9%