Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  26.5  28.9  27.5  28.6  23.4  23.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  54.0  56.0  58.0  74.0  99.0  92.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  37.0  26.0  35.0  43.0  14.0  39.0  54.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        1.1%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.0%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h       23.8%        0.7%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 WP092023 230827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  26.5  28.9  27.5  28.6  23.4  23.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%