Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  18.8  13.9  20.1  19.7  25.7  18.3  22.9  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 101.0  90.0  83.0  84.0  71.0  68.0  59.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  17.0  41.0  41.0  44.0  31.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%        7.0%       11.5%
 25kt / 24h       15.7%       14.4%       15.1%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%        9.7%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.6%        8.8%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%        8.5%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP092023 230828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  18.8  13.9  20.1  19.7  25.7  18.3  22.9  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%