Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.2  21.4  20.7  21.2  18.8  17.7  16.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  95.0  90.0  87.0  77.0  66.0  54.0  43.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  49.0  59.0  25.0  29.0  33.0  33.0  27.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.6%        4.0%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%        7.7%        7.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%        4.7%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        3.9%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%        3.9%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP092023 230828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.2  21.4  20.7  21.2  18.8  17.7  16.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%