Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  22.6  21.8  21.3  21.1  16.0  19.6  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0  96.0  88.0  77.0  70.0  64.0  57.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  44.0   9.0  -8.0  44.0  48.0  54.0  28.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.5%        6.6%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       16.2%       14.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       11.3%       11.2%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       10.5%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%        9.9%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h       42.8%        6.2%       24.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%        3.1%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP092023 230828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  22.6  21.8  21.3  21.1  16.0  19.6  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%