Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    123.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.2  25.5  27.0  19.6  22.7  17.9  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  81.0  73.0  70.0  60.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  34.0  28.0  30.0  24.0  30.0  -1.0  28.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.4%       19.1%       38.7%
 25kt / 24h       30.0%       21.9%       25.9%
 30kt / 24h       26.0%       15.2%       20.6%
 35kt / 24h       21.2%       15.2%       18.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP092023 230829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    123.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.2  25.5  27.0  19.6  22.7  17.9  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%