Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  27.1  28.5  23.1  20.1  23.3  19.0  28.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  73.0  70.0  68.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  37.0  21.0   3.0  31.0  32.0   0.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   9.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.8%        8.6%       24.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%        7.8%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP092023 230829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  27.1  28.5  23.1  20.1  23.3  19.0  28.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   9.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%