Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    121.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  25.5  23.0  17.9  21.6  18.6  26.7  22.9  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  71.0  66.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  45.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  38.0  31.0   7.0  72.0  20.0  39.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.1%        6.5%       16.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.5%        8.3%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 WP092023 230829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    121.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  25.5  23.0  17.9  21.6  18.6  26.7  22.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  78.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%