Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  16.7  17.2  18.3  26.8  32.2  36.4  37.7  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  60.0  51.0  42.0  41.0  54.0  47.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  67.0  41.0   3.0  37.0  45.0  55.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        2.0%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        3.3%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 WP092023 230830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  16.7  17.2  18.3  26.8  32.2  36.4  37.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%