Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  18.8  24.8  19.8  25.8  27.4  35.0  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  53.0  47.0  44.0  51.0  52.0  48.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  33.0  38.0  37.0  52.0  46.0   0.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  11.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        1.8%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        2.7%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 WP092023 230830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  18.8  24.8  19.8  25.8  27.4  35.0  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  11.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%