Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  16.9  17.1  20.1  29.7  25.6  30.8  27.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  52.0  47.0  46.0   5.0  37.0  60.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  13.0  26.0  44.0  46.0  21.0   9.0 -31.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0   5.0  16.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.9%        5.4%        9.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%        6.7%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.34

 WP092023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  16.9  17.1  20.1  29.7  25.6  30.8  27.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0   5.0  16.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%