Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  17.1  19.9  24.4  24.3  30.2  25.6  28.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  48.0  47.0  53.0  48.0  32.0  58.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  26.0  44.0  38.0  58.0  17.0   0.0 -37.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   6.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%        5.2%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%        5.8%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 WP092023 230831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  17.1  19.9  24.4  24.3  30.2  25.6  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  66.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   6.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%