Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  27.0  33.8  28.2  36.3  24.3  34.2  33.1  F  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  50.0  59.0  14.0  10.0  55.0   9.0  39.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  40.0  32.0  68.0  72.0  31.0  27.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  11.0  11.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP092023 230831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  27.0  33.8  28.2  36.3  24.3  34.2  33.1  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  11.0  11.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.1%        5.5%