Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  27.1  28.2  31.5  21.7  25.0  17.1  26.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  29.0  35.0  31.0  36.0  41.0  46.0  35.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  54.0  43.0  49.0  11.0  26.0  26.0  31.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  12.0   5.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        1.3%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.1%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP092023 230901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  27.1  28.2  31.5  21.7  25.0  17.1  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  12.0   5.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.3%        5.2%