Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  29.4  30.7  32.4  23.1  31.4  20.3  20.3  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  36.0  20.0  35.0  12.0  39.0  34.0  36.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  26.0  41.0  56.0   0.0  10.0  30.0  30.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  67.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  15.0   4.0   3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        0.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP092023 230901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  29.4  30.7  32.4  23.1  31.4  20.3  20.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  67.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  15.0   4.0   3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       13.9%        7.0%