Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  29.5  33.4  23.6  30.5  25.2  31.5  31.8  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  35.0  17.0  39.0  51.0  30.0  37.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  70.0  39.0  28.0  34.0  43.0  38.0  32.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        0.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP092023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  29.5  33.4  23.6  30.5  25.2  31.5  31.8  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%