Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    112.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  29.0  21.6  21.1  27.8  20.5  29.5  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  35.0   1.0  38.0  54.0  29.0  36.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  26.0   6.0 -15.0  -3.0  26.0  10.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP092023 230902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    112.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  29.0  21.6  21.1  27.8  20.5  29.5  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%