Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  26.4  29.4  33.2  26.3  34.9  31.9  37.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  37.0  38.0  38.0  84.0  90.0  90.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  25.0  28.0  45.0  24.0  26.0  28.0  46.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        0.1%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP092023 230902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  26.4  29.4  33.2  26.3  34.9  31.9  37.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%