Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  20.6  20.4  22.2  15.7  23.4  20.7  19.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  36.0  53.0  74.0  73.0  96.0  94.0  90.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -15.0   2.0   0.0  16.0  -2.0 -14.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        1.4%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       17.4%        1.6%        9.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP092023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  20.6  20.4  22.2  15.7  23.4  20.7  19.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%