Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  24.2  14.4  17.2  23.6  18.6  16.9  15.2  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  72.0  78.0  77.0  93.0  87.0  92.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -11.0 -14.0 -11.0  19.0  36.0  21.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  76.0  78.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        4.5%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        4.7%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        1.2%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h       32.2%       12.7%       22.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP092023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  24.2  14.4  17.2  23.6  18.6  16.9  15.2  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  76.0  78.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%