Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.3  27.4  27.9  22.7  21.1  22.6  19.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  22.0  33.0  38.0   6.0   6.0   1.0  39.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -28.0 -11.0 -20.0 -14.0  25.0  10.0  47.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        5.1%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP092023 230903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  19.3  27.4  27.9  22.7  21.1  22.6  19.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%