Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  21.6  21.4  19.5  28.0  28.1  34.6  40.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  12.0  31.0  32.0  33.0  34.0  34.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   3.0   4.0  18.0  26.0  37.0  32.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.7%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        3.2%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%        4.8%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP092023 230903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  21.6  21.4  19.5  28.0  28.1  34.6  40.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%