Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092023 230904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  27.9  22.2  24.7  26.0  19.7  18.8  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  33.0  36.0  40.0  45.0  40.0  36.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   5.0 -19.0 -20.0  14.0   6.0  47.0  54.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        9.6%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        4.4%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        3.0%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%       16.5%       13.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP092023 230904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  27.9  22.2  24.7  26.0  19.7  18.8  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%