Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.2  21.1  21.5  26.9  20.2  25.1  21.2  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  52.0  51.0  63.0  79.0  58.0  49.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  38.0  54.0  68.0  64.0  73.0  99.0  39.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  72.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.2%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       27.4%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%       12.3%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       11.0%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       11.0%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h       10.7%       39.7%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.1%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h       25.9%       23.0%       24.5%
 70kt / 48h       15.7%       20.2%       18.0%
 65kt / 72h       45.1%       49.3%       47.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP102023 230828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.2  21.1  21.5  26.9  20.2  25.1  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  72.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%