Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    139.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  24.4  15.8  19.3  23.1  19.3  19.6  20.4  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  70.0  89.0  77.0  63.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  40.0  41.0  49.0  83.0  85.0  96.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.8%        7.5%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       25.2%       50.5%       37.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.2%       31.7%       23.4%
 35kt / 24h       12.1%       30.8%       21.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       30.6%       16.7%
 45kt / 36h       22.6%       58.7%       40.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.4%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h       34.7%       37.5%       36.1%
 70kt / 48h       18.8%       34.6%       26.7%
 65kt / 72h       43.5%       58.3%       50.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP102023 230828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    139.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  24.4  15.8  19.3  23.1  19.3  19.6  20.4  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%