Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  20.2  17.6  24.4  17.3  21.0  17.7  18.9  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  96.0  76.0  78.0  64.0  31.0  38.0  50.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  90.0  75.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0  -7.0  -6.0  -7.0  -7.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.6%       20.4%       21.0%
 25kt / 24h       53.2%       68.9%       61.1%
 30kt / 24h       37.0%       56.6%       46.8%
 35kt / 24h       37.0%       56.6%       46.8%
 40kt / 24h       10.5%       54.6%       32.6%
 45kt / 36h       45.0%       76.9%       60.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       62.0%       31.0%
 55kt / 48h       48.5%       55.9%       52.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       51.8%       38.3%
 65kt / 72h       39.9%       61.6%       50.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP102023 230829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  20.2  17.6  24.4  17.3  21.0  17.7  18.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0  -7.0  -6.0  -7.0  -7.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%