Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  23.1  24.1  21.3  21.2  18.9  16.3  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  64.0  62.0  67.0  59.0  50.0  63.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  67.0 104.0  76.0  50.0  46.0  21.0   7.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.4%       12.7%       14.5%
 25kt / 24h       46.1%       54.9%       50.5%
 30kt / 24h       28.7%       42.2%       35.4%
 35kt / 24h       25.7%       42.2%       34.0%
 40kt / 24h       10.2%       40.6%       25.4%
 45kt / 36h       33.5%       48.0%       40.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.6%       13.3%
 55kt / 48h       30.0%       33.0%       31.5%
 70kt / 48h        9.9%       17.5%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h       22.1%       32.4%       27.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.24

 WP102023 230829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  23.1  24.1  21.3  21.2  18.9  16.3  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%