Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  17.0  15.7  18.2  15.6  19.1  22.7  13.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  56.0  81.0  60.0  83.0  74.0  83.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  78.0  76.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        4.0%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h       17.9%       30.6%       24.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       16.9%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       16.7%       11.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       16.7%        9.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.4%       24.1%       23.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.8%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h       32.0%       22.6%       27.3%
 70kt / 48h       13.3%        8.2%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h       39.3%       22.1%       30.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 WP102023 230829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  17.0  15.7  18.2  15.6  19.1  22.7  13.2  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  78.0  76.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%