Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  11.6  15.5  14.1  19.1  19.6  18.4  17.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  69.0  76.0  73.0  46.0  42.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  50.0  38.0  43.0  89.0  87.0  69.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   3.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.7%       19.7%       17.7%
 25kt / 24h       48.8%       67.5%       58.2%
 30kt / 24h       33.8%       60.3%       47.0%
 35kt / 24h       27.3%       60.3%       43.8%
 40kt / 24h       14.4%       58.3%       36.4%
 45kt / 36h       40.1%       57.7%       48.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       37.7%       18.9%
 55kt / 48h       44.0%       47.0%       45.5%
 70kt / 48h       16.6%       24.7%       20.6%
 65kt / 72h       33.1%       35.5%       34.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 WP102023 230829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  11.6  15.5  14.1  19.1  19.6  18.4  17.7  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   3.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%