Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  15.5  17.6  21.5  21.3  24.5  29.8  29.1  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  68.0  70.0  62.0  41.0  52.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  66.0  59.0  48.0  53.0  73.0  84.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        5.0%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.4%       34.0%       26.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       19.1%       15.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       18.6%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%       18.6%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h       19.1%       24.6%       21.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.7%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h       23.8%       19.0%       21.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        6.9%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h       20.6%       14.5%       17.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.36

 WP102023 230830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  15.5  17.6  21.5  21.3  24.5  29.8  29.1  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%