Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  17.1  21.3  20.4  22.7  21.5  23.2  19.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  76.0  66.0  47.0  34.0  48.0  67.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  58.0  48.0  61.0  61.0  95.0  66.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        6.9%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       40.0%       30.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%       24.2%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       23.2%       14.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%       23.1%       12.8%
 45kt / 36h       16.9%       31.8%       24.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.0%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h       24.7%       23.0%       23.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.0%       10.5%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h       31.3%       26.7%       29.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.34

 WP102023 230830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  17.1  21.3  20.4  22.7  21.5  23.2  19.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%