Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  18.6  16.4  16.3  18.3  17.6  20.1  16.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  67.0  46.0  33.0  43.0  59.0  67.0  34.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  25.0  36.0  61.0  45.0  68.0   8.0  25.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%       13.7%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       36.0%       57.1%       46.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.7%       45.2%       33.4%
 35kt / 24h       18.0%       45.2%       31.6%
 40kt / 24h        8.0%       44.0%       26.0%
 45kt / 36h       28.6%       48.2%       38.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.8%       13.9%
 55kt / 48h       34.7%       38.6%       36.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%       20.7%       15.9%
 65kt / 72h       25.3%       32.9%       29.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.34

 WP102023 230830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  18.6  16.4  16.3  18.3  17.6  20.1  16.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%