Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.7  15.4  16.8  22.5  25.1  20.3  17.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  39.0  37.0  43.0  53.0  45.0  86.0  88.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  38.0  64.0  47.0  38.0   9.0  -9.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  77.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        9.3%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       46.3%       33.9%
 30kt / 24h       13.2%       34.5%       23.9%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       34.5%       22.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       33.4%       18.2%
 45kt / 36h       19.9%       37.2%       28.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.5%        9.3%
 55kt / 48h       22.0%       26.1%       24.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        9.9%        7.0%
 65kt / 72h       18.5%       23.5%       21.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 WP102023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.7  15.4  16.8  22.5  25.1  20.3  17.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  77.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%